Warm, dry weather fuels wildfire season in Plains, Midwest

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. – Although warmer weather is being embraced by many snow-accustomed residents in the Plains and Upper Midwest, the unseasonably dry conditions have turned the region's vast grasslands into a tinderbox. Wildfires have already scorched thousands of acres, destroyed rural homes and caused two deaths.
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The region's early start to wildfire season was brought on by a "vicious cycle" of weather patterns, explained Beth Hermanson of the South Dakota Wildland Fire Suppression Division. Three years of excessive snow and rain fed grass growth before this winter's relatively light snowpack, which left grass standing 4 or 5-feet tall in some areas dried out — creating perfect fuel for wildfires.

"This time of year that's very unusual because normally we get that snow cover and it lays (the grass) down," Hermanson said.

"There's a lot of fuel to burn out there, which is a recipe for disaster as far as fires go," added North Dakota Forest Service fire specialist Ryan Melin.

Plus, the nice weather is luring people outside. Experts say the majority of grassfires are sparked by humans.

Fire warnings were issued Wednesday in North Dakota and Wisconsin because of strong winds and dry conditions, while a burn ban in Minnesota is taking effect Monday. Several states spanning from Colorado to Missouri were under similar warnings earlier this month.

In the last week, a wind-fueled grassfire in eastern Colorado injured three firefighters and destroyed at least two homes as it charred across about 37 square miles. A North Dakota farmer lost his home to a similar fire, and two deaths were attributed to grassfires in Wisconsin.

Such fires — fueled by wind, feeding on dry grass — are hard to manage. And the blazes become even more treacherous to fight when they spread across hills, valleys or creek beds because they can quickly split and move in different directions, Hermanson said.

"It's very easy to get trapped in a bad situation," she said.

Melin said North Dakota averages about 500 grassfires a year, but he expects far more this season considering dozens have already been reported. He also noted that two consecutive springs of heavy rain and flooding dampened grassfires but also spurred excessive vegetation growth.

"This year, my gut feeling is we're going to be quite a bit above that," Melin said, adding that about 90 percent of such fires are sparked by humans. "We've had a ton of fires and multiple large-scale events of over 1,000 acres."

In Missouri, several fires burned across about 8,500 acres during six days in early March, including three that were each responsible for charring more than 1,000 acres, said Ben Webster, fire program supervisor for the Missouri Department of Conservation.

"We had a drought last summer, and we never fully recovered from it," Webster said. "Without any kind of moisture this winter and then very early dry weather, it really just all came together."

Several weather factors combined to add to the fire threat this month: temperatures in the 70s, clear skies, low humidity, and wind gusting 40 to 50 mph. The warm weather also lured many people to work in their yards, he said.

"Fires get away from folks," Webster said. "A lot of it was careless use of fire, burning trash, burning yard debris."

In northwestern Wisconsin, fire officials are worried about hundreds of thousands of trees that were topped during a windstorm last summer that left about 2 million cords of wood on the ground — equivalent to a year's worth of logging.

The Department of Natural Resources, the National Guard and loggers have been racing to get as wood off the ground, but they've cleared only about half of the timber, said Steve Runstrom, the DNR's St. Croix Area forestry leader.

The tangles of logs and brush have made it nearly impossible to walk through the woods or bring in heavy equipment, he said. If a fire starts, firefighters would be forced to fall back to defensible positions such as roads or lakes, raising the threat for the thousands of homes, farms and cottages across the region.

Although rain is expected through the weekend, Runstrom warned that it takes only a few hours of sun to dry the ground, leaves and trees to the point where they'll burn.

"We're very dry and very concerned and now we're breathing a sigh of relief," he said, "but we're very early in the game in our fire season."

Fire officials also are closely watching day-to-day weather in Minnesota, where a handful of weekend blazes included a 600-acre fire and an 800-acre blaze. Neither fire caused significant property damage or injuries.

"We're really dependent on spring rains to keep fires in check," said Minnesota Interagency Fire Center spokeswoman Jean Goad said.

Rain and higher humidity has befallen the state in the last few days which helped calmed things down, said Larry Himanga, the fire prevention coordinator for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources.

"If we keep getting rain every week or two it might not be so bad, but if we don't get timely rains … we could be quite busy this year," he said.

Tropical Storm Emily develops.

Good Evening there Hurricane Trackers! We have had Recon inside Invest 91L all afternoon. They have found west winds and we have just gotten the signal that the NHC have started the process of upgrading 91L to Tropical Storm Emily.

I will have the latest as soon as the Advisory Package is released by the NHC.

91L - 100% chance of Development

As of 2am this morning the National Hurricane Center increased development chances for 91L to 100%. Looking at IR this morning it looks like 91L is well on her way to becoming Emily and in fact once Recon gets to it this afternoon they could find a strengthening Emily.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

late this afternoon or early Evening I will start full updates of all the latest Recon Data. Watches and/or Warnings will most likely be required for the Lesser Antilles as early as this morning. If you are living in the Lesser Antilles do not wait for the watches or warnings but start preparing now for tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions to start affecting your area with in the next 24 to 48 hours.

91L -- 90% chance of Development

Good Evening once again! The National Hurricane Center at 8pm increased the chance of development for 91L to 90% citing that a Tropical Depression could form as early tonight or tomorrow morning.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

My plan was to hold off on sharing my own thoughts on 91L until after it cleared the Islands but with so much talk around about 91L curving out to sea I thought I would share some thoughts with you.

There is a new concept I have been introduced to. It's by no means a perfect sure fire way to forecast however it is yet one more tool in the forecaster's toolbox. It's called Teleconnection. Here is what Teleconnection is based on wikipedia:

"Teleconnection in atmospheric science refers to climate anomalies being related to each other at large distances (typically thousands of kilometers). The most emblematic teleconnection is that linking sea-level pressure at Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, which defines the Southern Oscillation."

I haven't looked at any Forecast models recently however based on TeleConnections there should be a blocking ridge that would prevent 91L from recurving out to sea. Will there be? We will just have to wait and see how the models handle the ridge compared to what is really going on with the ridge. As we go along with 91L I will have more on the models and more about TeleConnections.

I will be back tomorrow afternoon/Evening with the very latest on the recon mission and what will likely be Tropical Storm Emily. Until then have a great evening!

Don Makes Landfall and 91L gaining Organization in the Atlantic

Good Evening Hurricane Trackers! Last night Don made landfall as a 50 mph Tropical Storm. Don quickly weakened from the very Dry air in place over Texas and the last NHC advisory was issued this morning.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic 91L is quickly Organizing this evening. The NHC gives 91L a 80% chance of developing with in the next 48 hours. Recon missions will begin for 91L tomorrow and I will have full updates on the recon missions starting tomorrow evening and going until the threat subsides.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 

If you are currently in the Lesser Antilles you should be preparing for a tropical Storm or Hurricane to start impacting your region Monday or Tuesday. Please see products issued by the National Hurricane Center and your local weather office when making life or death decisions.

I will have another update here at a little after 8pm tonight.

Once 91L is past the Islands I will start to break down the models for those of us in the US and will share my thoughts on this developing situation.

Tropical Storm Don and Invest 91L

Good morning! We are currently tracking both Tropical Storm Don which appears to be making landfall sometime tonight along the Texas coast as well as Invest 91L out in the open Atlantic headed for the Islands. Here is the latest information from the NHC on 91L (as of 8am):

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

I will have the very latest as well as my thoughts on these 2 systems later this afternoon!