National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Watches and Warnings


Sunday, July 31, 2011

91L - 100% chance of Development

As of 2am this morning the National Hurricane Center increased development chances for 91L to 100%. Looking at IR this morning it looks like 91L is well on her way to becoming Emily and in fact once Recon gets to it this afternoon they could find a strengthening Emily.


SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

late this afternoon or early Evening I will start full updates of all the latest Recon Data. Watches and/or Warnings will most likely be required for the Lesser Antilles as early as this morning. If you are living in the Lesser Antilles do not wait for the watches or warnings but start preparing now for tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions to start affecting your area with in the next 24 to 48 hours.

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