91L - 100% chance of Development

As of 2am this morning the National Hurricane Center increased development chances for 91L to 100%. Looking at IR this morning it looks like 91L is well on her way to becoming Emily and in fact once Recon gets to it this afternoon they could find a strengthening Emily.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

late this afternoon or early Evening I will start full updates of all the latest Recon Data. Watches and/or Warnings will most likely be required for the Lesser Antilles as early as this morning. If you are living in the Lesser Antilles do not wait for the watches or warnings but start preparing now for tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions to start affecting your area with in the next 24 to 48 hours.

91L -- 90% chance of Development

Good Evening once again! The National Hurricane Center at 8pm increased the chance of development for 91L to 90% citing that a Tropical Depression could form as early tonight or tomorrow morning.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

My plan was to hold off on sharing my own thoughts on 91L until after it cleared the Islands but with so much talk around about 91L curving out to sea I thought I would share some thoughts with you.

There is a new concept I have been introduced to. It's by no means a perfect sure fire way to forecast however it is yet one more tool in the forecaster's toolbox. It's called Teleconnection. Here is what Teleconnection is based on wikipedia:

"Teleconnection in atmospheric science refers to climate anomalies being related to each other at large distances (typically thousands of kilometers). The most emblematic teleconnection is that linking sea-level pressure at Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, which defines the Southern Oscillation."

I haven't looked at any Forecast models recently however based on TeleConnections there should be a blocking ridge that would prevent 91L from recurving out to sea. Will there be? We will just have to wait and see how the models handle the ridge compared to what is really going on with the ridge. As we go along with 91L I will have more on the models and more about TeleConnections.

I will be back tomorrow afternoon/Evening with the very latest on the recon mission and what will likely be Tropical Storm Emily. Until then have a great evening!

Don Makes Landfall and 91L gaining Organization in the Atlantic

Good Evening Hurricane Trackers! Last night Don made landfall as a 50 mph Tropical Storm. Don quickly weakened from the very Dry air in place over Texas and the last NHC advisory was issued this morning.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic 91L is quickly Organizing this evening. The NHC gives 91L a 80% chance of developing with in the next 48 hours. Recon missions will begin for 91L tomorrow and I will have full updates on the recon missions starting tomorrow evening and going until the threat subsides.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 

If you are currently in the Lesser Antilles you should be preparing for a tropical Storm or Hurricane to start impacting your region Monday or Tuesday. Please see products issued by the National Hurricane Center and your local weather office when making life or death decisions.

I will have another update here at a little after 8pm tonight.

Once 91L is past the Islands I will start to break down the models for those of us in the US and will share my thoughts on this developing situation.

Tropical Storm Don and Invest 91L

Good morning! We are currently tracking both Tropical Storm Don which appears to be making landfall sometime tonight along the Texas coast as well as Invest 91L out in the open Atlantic headed for the Islands. Here is the latest information from the NHC on 91L (as of 8am):

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

I will have the very latest as well as my thoughts on these 2 systems later this afternoon!