Tropical Storm Emily develops.

Good Evening there Hurricane Trackers! We have had Recon inside Invest 91L all afternoon. They have found west winds and we have just gotten the signal that the NHC have started the process of upgrading 91L to Tropical Storm Emily.

I will have the latest as soon as the Advisory Package is released by the NHC.

91L - 100% chance of Development

As of 2am this morning the National Hurricane Center increased development chances for 91L to 100%. Looking at IR this morning it looks like 91L is well on her way to becoming Emily and in fact once Recon gets to it this afternoon they could find a strengthening Emily.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

late this afternoon or early Evening I will start full updates of all the latest Recon Data. Watches and/or Warnings will most likely be required for the Lesser Antilles as early as this morning. If you are living in the Lesser Antilles do not wait for the watches or warnings but start preparing now for tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions to start affecting your area with in the next 24 to 48 hours.

91L -- 90% chance of Development

Good Evening once again! The National Hurricane Center at 8pm increased the chance of development for 91L to 90% citing that a Tropical Depression could form as early tonight or tomorrow morning.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

My plan was to hold off on sharing my own thoughts on 91L until after it cleared the Islands but with so much talk around about 91L curving out to sea I thought I would share some thoughts with you.

There is a new concept I have been introduced to. It's by no means a perfect sure fire way to forecast however it is yet one more tool in the forecaster's toolbox. It's called Teleconnection. Here is what Teleconnection is based on wikipedia:

"Teleconnection in atmospheric science refers to climate anomalies being related to each other at large distances (typically thousands of kilometers). The most emblematic teleconnection is that linking sea-level pressure at Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, which defines the Southern Oscillation."

I haven't looked at any Forecast models recently however based on TeleConnections there should be a blocking ridge that would prevent 91L from recurving out to sea. Will there be? We will just have to wait and see how the models handle the ridge compared to what is really going on with the ridge. As we go along with 91L I will have more on the models and more about TeleConnections.

I will be back tomorrow afternoon/Evening with the very latest on the recon mission and what will likely be Tropical Storm Emily. Until then have a great evening!